分位数局部调整模型及应用

本文基于分位数的回归理论与方法,提出了一个新的经济计量模型:分位数局部调整模型,并给出了其数学表示、参数估计与预测方法等一整套建模技术。分位数局部调整模型能够细致地给出响应变量在各个分位点上的条件分位数,便于揭示响应变量位置、散布与形状等动态调整过程的全景信息,从而得到比均值局部调整模型更为深刻的结果。最后,将分位数局部调整模型应用于中国货币需求分析,结果显示,在货币需求的不同阶段,不仅调整速度不同,调整方式也呈现出非对称性;M1存在货币失踪之谜现象,而M2却在条件密度第一个最优区域实现了供求均衡;最优货币需求条件密度曲线较为分散,这为央行制定货币政策预留了足够的空间。     

我国制造业上市公司财务危机预警实证研究

本文选取沪深两市A股制造业行业的上市公司作为研究对象,在传统财务预警指标基础上,引入公司治理结构、股权结构以及审计意见等非财务预警指标,采用因子分析和Logistic回归建立公司陷入财务危机前两年的财务危机预警模型。实证结果表明,加入审计意见指标建立的综合财务危机预警模型可以提高财务危机预警精度。     

理性的智慧——社会主义理论从空想到科学实现蜕变的决定性思维

《共产党宣言》的完成标志着社会主义理论实现了从空想到科学的转变。在这个转变当中,理性思考和逻辑论述始终起着重要的作用。     

人口年龄结构与住宅价格调控

在人12老龄化背景下．当人12总量和年龄结构发生质的变化时,将对住宅价格产生深远影响。本文在人口学研究基础上。有效结合住宅销售价格指数．通过逐步回归的方法获得购房适龄人口数量与住宅价格的关系模型,同时创新性地纳入莱宾斯坦人口发展五阶段理论,通过Logarithmic曲线模型进行量化分析。结论显示,在假定条件下．随着未来适龄购房人口的减少,国内住房价格将在2018年出现拐点并逐步回落,并在2030年前后降至2000年水平（剔除通胀因素）,之后将处于长期低迷状态。因此当前在遏制住房价格过快上涨的同时,应从更长远的视角构建调控思路。     

中国金融集聚水平的现状与影响因素探析

金融集聚作为产业集聚的一种表现形式,在我国呈现出在曲折中缓慢上升的趋势,而且这种趋势有向东部发达地区延伸的迹象。为验证并进一步探究影响这种趋势的相关因素,一方面,引入空间基尼系数、HI指数和行业集中度三种测度方法,对我国金融集聚的现状作出分析;另一方面,通过回归分析考察我国金融集聚与工业化程度、货币化程度和经济发展水平之间的关系,认为经济的货币化程度和经济发展水平是影响这种集聚趋势的重要因素。     

Impact of Financial Development on the Environmental Quality in Iran

In recent decades, undesirable environmental changes, such as global warming and greenhouse gases emission, have raised worldwide concerns. In order to achieve higher growth rate, environmental problems emerged from economic activities have turned into a controversial issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of financial development on environmental quality in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical data over the period from 1970 to 2011 were used. Also by using the Auto Regression Model Distributed Lag （ARDL）, short-term and long-term relationships among the variables of model were estimated and analyzed. The results show that financial development accelerates the degradation of the environment; however, the increase in trade openness reduces the damage to environment in Iran. Error correction coefficient shows that in each period, 53% of imbalances would be justified and will approach their long-run procedure. Structural stability tests show that the estimated coefficients were stable over the period.     

The Capitalization of Public Services and Amenities into Land Prices — Empirical Evidence from German Communities

Applying the hedonic approach to land prices, this article investigates the capitalization of public services and pure amenities in a cross section of German communities. Possible spillover effects from neighboring municipalities are explicitly included in the analysis and prove to be of considerable importance. Estimates of the impacts of local attributes on land prices are obtained taking into account the spatial structure among unobserved variables. The results confirm that differences in land prices are largely attributable to local conditions and policies. This implies a significant degree of mobility as well as high estimation of local attributes on the part of German households.     

The impact of formal processes for market information acquisition and utilization on the performance of Chinese new ventures

The authors examine the performance impact of formal market information processes. Specifically, a theoretical model is developed that hypothesizes that formal processes for market information acquisition and utilization have direct and positive main effects on new venture success and is then tested using a sample of 222 new ventures located in China. Findings indicate that new venture success is positively correlated with the use of formal processes for market information acquisition and use. Moreover, the relative importance of formal processes to the acquisition and use of market information depends on whether the new venture serves an emerging or established market. In particular, the impact of formal processes for information acquisition is higher among new ventures that serve emerging markets. In contrast, the impact of formal processes for information use is higher among new ventures that serve established markets. We present managerial implications of our results. For example, a new venture with a strong market orientation can respond quickly to emerging marketplace needs, and can even seize the advantage from incumbents. If it is in an emerging market, however, the new venture management team should strive to excel at information acquisition; in an established market, it is important for the management team to excel at information utilization.     

区域耕地数量变化预测方法的对比研究

研究目的:对区域耕地数量变化预测方法进行对比分析,科学合理确定区域耕地数量。研究方法:通过Pearson相关分析法筛选影响耕地变化的关键因子,利用改进的BP神经网络算法、灰色模型和多元线性回归模型法对费县耕地数量变化进行预测。研究结果:改进的BP神经网络算法相对传统的灰色模型和多元线性回归模型等预测方法具备较高的预测精度。研究结论:改进的BP神经网络算法是进行耕地数量变化预测的较好方法,具有实际指导意义,其预测结果可以为当地相关部门合理地确定耕地保有量、推进耕地保护提供科学依据。     

民间公益组织间合作的逻辑与实现——基于上海市益优青年服务中心的研究分析

作为一支重要的社会力量,不断涌现的民间公益组织正逐步影响着社会政治格局和人们的生活方式。学界对其研究也一直方兴未艾,而致力于解决民间公益组织发展困境的各种理论研究更是层出不穷,但大多止步于理论或被实践证明其狭隘性。鉴于这种状况,本文在对上海一家民间公益组织深入调查研究的基础上指出:民间公益组织间的合作也许才是此类组织走出困境实现发展的更优选择,而这种合作具有内在的理论逻辑基点并依赖于一定的机制得以实现。